A healthy economy should be designed to thrive, not grow | Kate Raworth
A healthy economy should be designed to thrive, not grow | Kate Raworth
What would a sustainable, universally beneficial economy look like? “Like a doughnut,” says Oxford economist Kate Raworth. In a stellar, eye-opening talk, she explains how we can move countries out of the hole — where people are falling short on life’s essentials — and create regenerative, distributive economies that work within the planet’s ecological limits.
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Content
12.76 -> Have you ever watched
a baby learning to crawl?
16.52 -> Because as any
parent knows, it's gripping.
19.2 -> First, they wriggle about on the floor,
21.12 -> usually backwards,
22.36 -> but then they drag themselves forwards,
24.4 -> and then they pull themselves up to stand,
27.32 -> and we all clap.
29.2 -> And that simple motion
of forwards and upwards,
33.2 -> it's the most basic direction
of progress we humans recognize.
38.4 -> We tell it in our story
of evolution as well,
40.84 -> from our lolloping ancestors
to Homo erectus, finally upright,
44.88 -> to Homo sapiens, depicted, always a man,
48.36 -> always mid-stride.
51.48 -> So no wonder we so readily believe
54.16 -> that economic progress
will take this very same shape,
57.92 -> this ever-rising line of growth.
62.4 -> It's time to think again,
64.72 -> to reimagine the shape of progress,
68.36 -> because today, we have economies
71.76 -> that need to grow,
whether or not they make us thrive,
76.56 -> and what we need,
especially in the richest countries,
80.52 -> are economies that make us thrive
82.96 -> whether or not they grow.
84.92 -> Yes, it's a little flippant word
87.04 -> hiding a profound shift in mindset,
90.36 -> but I believe this is the shift
we need to make
93.04 -> if we, humanity, are going to thrive
here together this century.
98.6 -> So where did this obsession
with growth come from?
101.64 -> Well, GDP, gross domestic product,
103.76 -> it's just the total cost
of goods and services
106.36 -> sold in an economy in a year.
108.52 -> It was invented in the 1930s,
110.08 -> but it very soon became
the overriding goal of policymaking,
114.08 -> so much so that even today,
in the richest of countries,
117.84 -> governments think that the solution
to their economic problems
120.8 -> lies in more growth.
123.72 -> Just how that happened
125.6 -> is best told through
the 1960 classic by W.W. Rostow.
130.72 -> I love it so much,
I have a first-edition copy.
136.6 -> "The Stages of Economic Growth:
A Non-Communist Manifesto."
141.44 -> (Laughter)
143.2 -> You can just smell the politics, huh?
145.96 -> And Rostow tells us that all economies
148 -> need to pass through
five stages of growth:
150.44 -> first, traditional society,
where a nation's output is limited
154.04 -> by its technology,
its institutions and mindset;
157.08 -> but then the preconditions for takeoff,
159.76 -> where we get the beginnings
of a banking industry,
162.16 -> the mechanization of work
163.44 -> and the belief that growth is necessary
for something beyond itself,
167.16 -> like national dignity
or a better life for the children;
171.2 -> then takeoff, where compound interest
is built into the economy's institutions
177.04 -> and growth becomes the normal condition;
180 -> fourth is the drive to maturity
where you can have any industry you want,
183.72 -> no matter your natural resource base;
185.76 -> and the fifth and final stage,
the age of high-mass consumption
190.2 -> where people can buy
all the consumer goods they want,
192.8 -> like bicycles and sewing machines --
194.92 -> this was 1960, remember.
197.96 -> Well, you can hear the implicit
airplane metaphor in this story,
203.56 -> but this plane is like no other,
207.2 -> because it can never be allowed to land.
210.56 -> Rostow left us flying
into the sunset of mass consumerism,
215.44 -> and he knew it.
217.28 -> As he wrote,
219.88 -> "And then the question beyond,
223.24 -> where history offers us only fragments.
227.44 -> What to do when the increase
in real income itself loses its charm?"
234.72 -> He asked that question,
but he never answered it, and here's why.
238.08 -> The year was 1960,
239.64 -> he was an advisor to the presidential
candidate John F. Kennedy,
243.44 -> who was running for election
on the promise of five-percent growth,
247.4 -> so Rostow's job was
to keep that plane flying,
249.92 -> not to ask if, how, or when
it could ever be allowed to land.
256.44 -> So here we are, flying into the sunset
of mass consumerism
260.04 -> over half a century on,
262.44 -> with economies that have come
to expect, demand and depend upon
267.48 -> unending growth,
269.079 -> because we're financially,
politically and socially addicted to it.
274.96 -> We're financially addicted to growth,
because today's financial system
278.28 -> is designed to pursue
the highest rate of monetary return,
281.6 -> putting publicly traded companies
under constant pressure
285.12 -> to deliver growing sales,
growing market share and growing profits,
288.48 -> and because banks create money
as debt bearing interest,
292 -> which must be repaid with more.
294.2 -> We're politically addicted to growth
295.96 -> because politicians
want to raise tax revenue
298.12 -> without raising taxes
299.56 -> and a growing GDP
seems a sure way to do that.
302.68 -> And no politician wants to lose
their place in the G-20 family photo.
306.28 -> (Laughter)
307.52 -> But if their economy stops growing
while the rest keep going,
311.24 -> well, they'll be booted out
by the next emerging powerhouse.
314.6 -> And we are socially addicted to growth,
316.8 -> because thanks to a century
of consumer propaganda,
320.64 -> which fascinatingly
was created by Edward Bernays,
323.88 -> the nephew of Sigmund Freud,
326.6 -> who realized that
his uncle's psychotherapy
329.64 -> could be turned into
very lucrative retail therapy
332.92 -> if we could be convinced
to believe that we transform ourselves
337.12 -> every time we buy something more.
341.08 -> None of these addictions
are insurmountable,
344.28 -> but they all deserve far more attention
than they currently get,
348.48 -> because look where this journey
has been taking us.
350.92 -> Global GDP is 10 times bigger
than it was in 1950
355.28 -> and that increase has brought
prosperity to billions of people,
359.36 -> but the global economy
has also become incredibly divisive,
364.56 -> with the vast share of returns to wealth
366.68 -> now accruing to a fraction
of the global one percent.
370.88 -> And the economy has become
incredibly degenerative,
374.56 -> rapidly destabilizing
this delicately balanced planet
379.36 -> on which all of our lives depend.
382.4 -> Our politicians know it, and so they offer
new destinations for growth.
386.12 -> You can have green growth,
inclusive growth,
388.24 -> smart, resilient, balanced growth.
390.24 -> Choose any future you want
so long as you choose growth.
395.28 -> I think it's time to choose
a higher ambition, a far bigger one,
400 -> because humanity's
21st century challenge is clear:
404.48 -> to meet the needs of all people
407.28 -> within the means of this
extraordinary, unique, living planet
411.8 -> so that we and the rest
of nature can thrive.
416.16 -> Progress on this goal isn't going
to be measured with the metric of money.
419.68 -> We need a dashboard of indicators.
422.04 -> And when I sat down to try and draw
a picture of what that might look like,
426.48 -> strange though this is going to sound,
428.8 -> it came out looking like a doughnut.
432.16 -> I know, I'm sorry,
433.4 -> but let me introduce you
to the one doughnut
435.72 -> that might actually turn out
to be good for us.
438.08 -> So imagine humanity's resource use
radiating out from the middle.
441.32 -> That hole in the middle is a place
443 -> where people are falling short
on life's essentials.
445.48 -> They don't have the food, health care,
education, political voice, housing
449.64 -> that every person needs
for a life of dignity and opportunity.
453.48 -> We want to get everybody out of the hole,
over the social foundation
456.72 -> and into that green doughnut itself.
459.72 -> But, and it's a big but,
463.48 -> we cannot let our collective resource use
overshoot that outer circle,
468.08 -> the ecological ceiling,
469.52 -> because there we put so much pressure
on this extraordinary planet
473.36 -> that we begin to kick it out of kilter.
475.56 -> We cause climate breakdown,
we acidify the oceans,
478.56 -> a hole in the ozone layer,
480.64 -> pushing ourselves
beyond the planetary boundaries
483.84 -> of the life-supporting systems
that have for the last 11,000 years
488.52 -> made earth such a benevolent
home to humanity.
493.12 -> So this double-sided challenge
to meet the needs of all
495.76 -> within the means of the planet,
497.28 -> it invites a new shape of progress,
499.56 -> no longer this ever-rising line of growth,
502.56 -> but a sweet spot for humanity,
505.52 -> thriving in dynamic balance
between the foundation and the ceiling.
510.08 -> And I was really struck
once I'd drawn this picture
512.72 -> to realize that the symbol of well-being
in many ancient cultures
517.04 -> reflects this very same sense
of dynamic balance,
520.64 -> from the Maori Takarangi
522.56 -> to the Taoist Yin Yang,
the Buddhist endless knot,
524.96 -> the Celtic double spiral.
527.919 -> So can we find this dynamic balance
in the 21st century?
532.64 -> Well, that's a key question,
534.2 -> because as these red wedges show,
right now we are far from balanced,
538.88 -> falling short and overshooting
at the same time.
542.08 -> Look in that hole, you can see that
millions or billions of people worldwide
545.68 -> still fall short
on their most basic of needs.
549.2 -> And yet, we've already overshot at least
four of these planetary boundaries,
553.64 -> risking irreversible impact
of climate breakdown
557.24 -> and ecosystem collapse.
560.4 -> This is the state of humanity
and our planetary home.
564.6 -> We, the people of the early 21st century,
568.52 -> this is our selfie.
571.8 -> No economist from last century
saw this picture,
574.36 -> so why would we imagine
that their theories
576.44 -> would be up for taking on its challenges?
578.44 -> We need ideas of our own,
579.88 -> because we are the first
generation to see this
582.6 -> and probably the last with a real chance
of turning this story around.
587.12 -> You see, 20th century economics assured us
that if growth creates inequality,
591.08 -> don't try to redistribute,
592.6 -> because more growth
will even things up again.
594.84 -> If growth creates pollution,
596.68 -> don't try to regulate, because more growth
will clean things up again.
601.16 -> Except, it turns out, it doesn't,
604.2 -> and it won't.
605.68 -> We need to create economies that tackle
this shortfall and overshoot together,
609.88 -> by design.
611.44 -> We need economies that are regenerative
and distributive by design.
616.04 -> You see, we've inherited
degenerative industries.
618.76 -> We take earth's materials,
make them into stuff we want,
621.88 -> use it for a while, often only once,
and then throw it away,
625.52 -> and that is pushing us
over planetary boundaries,
628.24 -> so we need to bend those arrows around,
630.76 -> create economies that work with and within
the cycles of the living world,
635 -> so that resources are never used up
but used again and again,
638.08 -> economies that run on sunlight,
640.08 -> where waste from one process
is food for the next.
643.64 -> And this kind of regenerative design
is popping up everywhere.
647.52 -> Over a hundred cities worldwide,
from Quito to Oslo,
650.96 -> from Harare to Hobart,
652.84 -> already generate more than 70 percent
of their electricity
656.32 -> from sun, wind and waves.
658.72 -> Cities like London, Glasgow, Amsterdam
are pioneering circular city design,
663.84 -> finding ways to turn the waste
from one urban process
667 -> into food for the next.
668.8 -> And from Tigray, Ethiopia
to Queensland, Australia,
673.12 -> farmers and foresters are regenerating
once-barren landscapes
677.36 -> so that it teems with life again.
680.68 -> But as well as being
regenerative by design,
682.8 -> our economies must be
distributive by design,
686.28 -> and we've got unprecedented
opportunities for making that happen,
690.56 -> because 20th-century
centralized technologies,
693.84 -> institutions,
695.36 -> concentrated wealth,
knowledge and power in few hands.
700.64 -> This century, we can design
our technologies and institutions
704.28 -> to distribute wealth, knowledge
and empowerment to many.
708.56 -> Instead of fossil fuel energy
and large-scale manufacturing,
712.32 -> we've got renewable energy networks,
digital platforms and 3D printing.
717.92 -> 200 years of corporate control
of intellectual property is being upended
722.48 -> by the bottom-up, open-source,
peer-to-peer knowledge commons.
726.24 -> And corporations that still pursue
maximum rate of return
729.72 -> for their shareholders,
732.04 -> well they suddenly look rather out of date
734.36 -> next to social enterprises
that are designed to generate
737.32 -> multiple forms of value and share it
with those throughout their networks.
742.48 -> If we can harness today's technologies,
745.2 -> from AI to blockchain
747.92 -> to the Internet of Things
to material science,
750.12 -> if we can harness these
in service of distributive design,
754.44 -> we can ensure that health care, education,
finance, energy, political voice
759.4 -> reaches and empowers those people
who need it most.
763.84 -> You see, regenerative
and distributive design
766.88 -> create extraordinary opportunities
for the 21st-century economy.
771.4 -> So where does this leave
Rostow's airplane ride?
774.6 -> Well, for some it still carries
the hope of endless green growth,
778.08 -> the idea that thanks to dematerialization,
781.4 -> exponential GDP growth can go on forever
while resource use keeps falling.
786.84 -> But look at the data.
This is a flight of fancy.
790.68 -> Yes, we need to dematerialize
our economies,
793 -> but this dependency on unending growth
cannot be decoupled from resource use
797.44 -> on anything like the scale required
799.84 -> to bring us safely back
within planetary boundaries.
804 -> I know this way of thinking
about growth is unfamiliar,
806.84 -> because growth is good, no?
808.92 -> We want our children to grow,
our gardens to grow.
811.88 -> Yes, look to nature and growth
is a wonderful, healthy source of life.
816.16 -> It's a phase, but many economies
like Ethiopia and Nepal today
820.4 -> may be in that phase.
821.8 -> Their economies are growing
at seven percent a year.
825.6 -> But look again to nature,
827.48 -> because from your children's feet
to the Amazon forest,
831.6 -> nothing in nature grows forever.
833.56 -> Things grow, and they grow up
and they mature,
836.64 -> and it's only by doing so
838.44 -> that they can thrive for a very long time.
843.84 -> We already know this.
845.52 -> If I told you my friend went to the doctor
848.36 -> who told her she had a growth
852.36 -> that feels very different,
854.08 -> because we intuitively understand
that when something tries to grow forever
858.16 -> within a healthy, living, thriving system,
862.56 -> it's a threat to the health of the whole.
865.48 -> So why would we imagine that our economies
867.76 -> would be the one system
that could buck this trend
870.48 -> and succeed by growing forever?
873.56 -> We urgently need financial,
political and social innovations
878.32 -> that enable us to overcome
this structural dependency on growth,
882.92 -> so that we can instead
focus on thriving and balance
888.16 -> within the social and the ecological
boundaries of the doughnut.
893.32 -> And if the mere idea of boundaries
makes you feel, well, bounded,
899.04 -> think again.
900.84 -> Because the world's most ingenious people
903.64 -> turn boundaries into
the source of their creativity.
907.4 -> From Mozart on his five-octave piano
910.44 -> Jimi Hendrix on his six-string guitar,
913.2 -> Serena Williams on a tennis court,
916.16 -> it's boundaries
that unleash our potential.
920.24 -> And the doughnut's boundaries unleash
the potential for humanity to thrive
925.56 -> with boundless creativity,
participation, belonging and meaning.
932.52 -> It's going to take all the ingenuity
that we have got to get there,
937.28 -> so bring it on.
938.92 -> Thank you.
940.16 -> (Applause)
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rhcrbcg8HBw