China's Surprise Move on Loan Rates | The Pulse With Francine Lacqua 08/21/2023

Aug 26, 2023

China's Surprise Move on Loan Rates | The Pulse With Francine Lacqua 08/21/2023

The Pulse With Francine Lacqua is all about conversations with high profile guests in the beating heart of global business, economics, finance and politics. Based in London, we go wherever the story is, bringing you exclusive interviews and market-moving scoops. Guests include: Jim O’Neill, Former Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Nicola Mai, PIMCO Europe, Portfolio Manager and Sovereign Credit Analyst.

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14.001 -> >> NEWSMAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS. THIS IS "THE PULSE"

15.001 -> WITH FRANCINE LACQUA.

21.001 -> >> VERY GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME TO THE PULSE.

25.001 -> I'M MANUS CRANNY IN DUBAI. CHINESE CONTINUED THEIR SLIDE

29.287 -> AFTER BANKS MAKE A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED CUT THEIR BENCHMARK

33.572 -> LENDING RATES. BUT FAILED TO FROM -- TO TRIM

37.001 -> THE REFERENCE RATE FROM CONCERT ENERGY STOCKS ARE HYBRID FEARS

41.001 -> OF THE POTENTIAL STRIKE HITTING AUSTRALIAN GAS EXPORTS.

45.001 -> CITI SEAL JANE FRASER IS EXPECTING TO BE BREAKING UP THE

48.001 -> BANK'S BIGGEST UNIT IN A RESTRUCTURING THAT WOULD GIVE

50.001 -> HER MORE POWER. PLUS, BRICS LEADERS ARE

53.501 -> GATHERING IN JOHANNESBURG TO TRY TO CHALLENGE THE WESTERN

58.001 -> DOMINANCE OF GLOBAL FINANCE. WE WILL DISCUSS THE MAN WHO

63.001 -> COINED THE MONIKER. JIM O'NEILL JOINS THE PULSE.

68.001 -> THE FORMER GOVERNOR OF GOLDMAN SACHS ASSET MANAGEMENT.

71.001 -> WE ARE DRIFTING HIGHER ACROSS THE EUROPEAN COMPLEX.

74.001 -> IT IS BECAUSE OF ANGST OVER GAS PRICES.

76.76 -> THAT IS THE DEBILITATING STORY FROM AUSTRALIA THAT COULD BE ON

80.553 -> STRIKE. STORAGES ARE QUITE FULL. EUROPEAN EQUITY MARKETS ARE UP.

84.001 -> WE BREAK WITH TREND THERE.

90.001 -> THE ISSUE IS HOW BAD ARE THINGS IN CHINA AND WHAT IS THE

93.001 -> TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF POLICY TO THE REAL ECONOMY?

96.001 -> HOW DO WE LOOK AT THE EUROPEAN MAP?

99.001 -> MORGAN STANLEY WARNS THAT YOU HAVE A POTENTIAL.

103.001 -> LET'S HAVE A CROSS ASSETS INSTEAD.

106.001 -> I CAN TELL YOU THAT ACROSS THE ASSET ABOARD YOU'VE GOT 10 YEAR

110.001 -> GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS AT THE HIGHEST SINCE 2007.

114.001 -> ROUGHLY EIGHT BPS IN THE SPACE OF THE AUGUST ALONE.

119.001 -> 30 YEAR PAPER, THE HIGHEST SINCE 2011.

122.001 -> OUR THE BOND VIGILANTES AWAKEN?

129.001 -> ARE BLOOMBERG ANALYST IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE RISING

130.001 -> ENVIRONMENTS.

136.001 -> HOW MUCH MORE CAN THEY DELIVER? BOB MICHELE SAYS BUY EVERYTHING.

141.001 -> THERE IS THE CONSEQUENCE ON THE EUROPEAN GAS MARKETS.

144.001 -> UP BY JUST UNDER 8.25%. WE HAVE THE THREAT OF AN LNG

149.001 -> WORKER STRIKE IN AUSTRALIA. THE RISK IS THAT COMPETITION

153.001 -> WITH ASIA OR GAS. GAS PRICES SPIKE. BRENT UP 0.7%.

160.001 -> THE HONEYMOON WAS OVER LAST WEEK SEVEN WEEKS OF GAINS, OFF

165.001 -> TO .3%. PEOPLE ARE WORRIED ABOUT CHINA

167.001 -> AND OVERALL RECOVERY NARRATIVE. BITCOIN UP AS THE YIELDS --

172.001 -> BITCOIN TOOK A TANK. IT BILLION DOLLARS OF

177.001 -> LIQUIDATIONS IN 24 HOURS ON FRIDAY.

179.001 -> IT GIVES YOU A SENSE OF THE DEBILITATION 15 YEAR HIGHER

184.001 -> YIELDS HAS ON OVERALL IN THEORY PROGRESS ASSETS.

188.001 -> THE CHINESE BANKS HAVE MADE SMALLER THAN EXPECTED CUT TO

190.001 -> THEIR BENCHMARK LENDING RATES. THEY AVOIDED TRIMMING THE

194.001 -> REFERENCE RATE FOR MORTGAGES AFTER THE PBOC TOLD THE BANKS

198.816 -> OVER THE WEEKEND SUPPORT THE CHINESE ECONOMY WITH INCREASED

203.149 -> LENDING. SOFIA HORTA E COSTA IS WITH ME.

207.001 -> IF WE ARE TO DILUTE ALL OF THIS THE PRIME RATE IS THE BENCHMARK

209.001 -> BUT IS NOT BEING TRANSMITTED.

215.001 -> IT IS NOT BEING TRANSMITTED TO THE MORTGAGE MARKET.

218.001 -> IS IT A STUMBLING BLOCK, A FAILURE TO LAUNCH VEHICLE HOW

222.001 -> WOULD YOU DESCRIBE THE LACK OF ENGAGEMENT AND POLICY

223.001 -> INITIATIVES? SOFIA: THIS IS A COMPLICATED POLICY

229.001 -> TRANSMISSION MECHANISM BECAUSE WHAT HAPPENED IS THE CENTRAL

234.001 -> BANK CUT INTEREST RATES LAST WEEK, WHICH WAS INCREDIBLY

235.001 -> UNEXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH AUTHORITIES HAVE

242.001 -> BEEN SAYING IT WILL SUPPORT THE PROPERTY MARKET AND BROADER

245.001 -> ECONOMY WITH CHEAPER LOANS, NOBODY EXPECTED THEM TO DO THAT

247.001 -> LAST WEEK ALREADY. THE FOLLOW-THROUGH WAS EXCITED

250.001 -> TO COME TODAY. WHAT HAPPENS IS THE BANKS THAT

254.001 -> THESE LOAN PRIME RATE'S. IT IS THE ONE YEAR AND THE

256.001 -> FIVE-YEAR. THE FIVE-YEAR MATTERS BECAUSE

260.001 -> UNDERPINS MORTGAGES AND THAT WAS UNCHANGED.

262.527 -> THANKS PROTECTING THEIR NET INTEREST MARGINS TO

265.475 -> PROFITABILITY. IF AUTHORITIES IN BEIJING ARE

268.001 -> TELLING THEM TO LEND MORE THEY NEED TO HOLD ONTO THOSE BASIS

271.001 -> POINTS. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR THE

276.001 -> FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND IT WAS ONE OF THE KEY COMPLAINTS FROM THE

280.001 -> WHOLE INDUSTRY LAST YEAR WHEN BEIJING WAS TELLING THE BANKS

282.001 -> TO PLAY THEIR ROLE IN SUPPORTING GROWTH AND INJECTING

285.001 -> THE ECONOMY WITH CREDITS. THEY WERE SAYING THEY CANNOT

288.001 -> AFFORD TO DO THIS. BEIJING IS LISTENING TO THE

290.001 -> BANKS. IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THEM TO

293.001 -> PROTECT THEIR BALANCE SHEET. IF THEY NEED TO LEND MORE, THEY

297.001 -> NEED TO AFFORD TO DO IT. THE THING IS THE MARKET IS

302.001 -> READING THIS NEGATIVELY BECAUSE THE MARKET EXPECTS BEIJING

306.001 -> BANKS AND EVERYONE WITH AUTHORITY IN CHINA TO DO

308.001 -> EVERYTHING THEY CAN, SUPPORTING GROWTH AND SENTIMENT, AND THAT

312.001 -> IS NOT WHAT THEY GOT TODAY. MANUS:

315.001 -> PROBABLY ONE OF THE MOST READ STORIES ON THE BLOOMBERG TODAY

318.001 -> IS WHY RUN IT'S COLD? RUN IT'S COLD, XI JINPING IS

322.001 -> LETTING THE CHINESE ECONOMY FAIL. MANY PEOPLE WILL ASK THE

327.001 -> QUESTION LENDING TO MORTGAGES IS FUELING THE SAME KIND OF

329.001 -> CYCLE WE LIVED IN BEFORE. THE MORE IMPORTANT THING IS TO

332.001 -> GRAPPLE WITH THE DEBT. AT A LOCAL GOVERNMENT LEVEL.

338.001 -> WE ARE SEEING INITIATIVES WHICH MY GUESTS ARE SAYING IS NOT

342.001 -> ENOUGH TO HELP LOCAL GOVERNMENTS FUNDING VEHICLES

346.501 -> REFINANCE. WHAT ARE THE DETAILS? SOFIA: EXACTLY.

351.001 -> THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT CONTEXT AND REALLY WELL-WRITTEN STORY

353.001 -> BY MY COLLEAGUES ON CHINA THE EVERYONE SHOULD READ.

357.001 -> ESSENTIALLY WHAT BEIJING IS DOING RIGHT NOW IS TRYING A

359.001 -> VERY PAINFUL RESTRUCTURING OF THE ECONOMY OF THE ENTIRE

363.001 -> ECONOMY, THE PROPERTY SECTOR HUGE CHUNK OF EXPERT BECAUSE OF

368.001 -> ESSENTIALLY THE HANGOVER OF HOW AUTHORITIES DEALT WITH THE

372.001 -> AFTERMATH OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS IN 2007-2008.

375.001 -> THEY INJECTED CHEAP LIQUIDITY INTO THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND

381.001 -> NOW THE DEBT OVERHANG FROM THAT'S THAT THEY ARE TRYING TO

387.001 -> TRYING TO -- ESSENTIALLY DEAL WITH HIS A REALLY COMPLICATED

390.001 -> THING THAT XI JINPING IS TRYING TO DO.

393.001 -> THE DOWNTURN IN THE PROPERTY MARKET, THIS WAS DELIBERATE.

396.001 -> IT WAS ENGINEERED BY BEIJING AND THERE WAS A BUBBLE THERE.

400.001 -> SO MANY CHINESE HOUSEHOLDS HAD THE MAJORITY OF THEIR SAVINGS

402.001 -> IN PROPERTY. SOME PEOPLE HAD THREE

404.001 -> PROPERTIES. THIS WAS A BUBBLE NEEDED TO

409.001 -> BURST AND BE DEALT WITH OR DEFLATED.

412.001 -> DEFLATING THE PROPERTY BUBBLE IS INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT AND

417.001 -> WHAT BEIJING IS FINDING OUT NOW IS THAT WHEN THE DOWNWARD

420.001 -> SPIRAL BEGINS, IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO STOP ITS BECAUSE

424.001 -> YOU HAVE A CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE. PEOPLE ARE NOT QUITE SURE HOW

429.001 -> AND WHEN THE MARKETS WILL DROP SO THEY ARE EXPECTING IT

430.001 -> DROPPING. EVEN THOUGH BANKS ARE OFFERING

435.001 -> CHEAPER CREDITS, MORTGAGE RATES ARE AT RECORD LOWS, NO ONE

439.001 -> WANTS THEM AND PEOPLE ARE USING THIS TO ESSENTIALLY REFINANCE.

444.001 -> YOU HAVE AN ECONOMY THAT IS IN DELEVERAGING MODE.

447.001 -> THIS WAS INTENTIONAL BY BEIJING BUT IT NOT GROWING EITHER.

451.001 -> THAT IS WHY EVERYONE IS COMPARING THIS TO JAPAN AND

453.106 -> WHAT HAPPENED THERE. IT IS A BALANCE SHEET RECESSION

455.001 -> ALREADY IN THE WORKS, MANUS. MANUS:

461.001 -> I THINK IT WILL BE MORE THAN A LOSS DECADE IF IT COMES TO PASS

464.001 -> AND REFLECTS ON WHAT HAPPENS -- HAPPENED IN JAPAN.

468.001 -> SOFIA HORTA E COSTA PUTTING THE CHINESE STATE -- CHINA POLICY

471.001 -> RESPONSE AND CONTACTS. ONE LADY WAS TAKING HER SIDE TO

476.001 -> STRUCTURE IS THE CEO OF JANE FRASER AT CITY -- CITI.

481.001 -> THEY ARE REPORTING THAT THEY WILL BREAK UP THE BIGGEST UNITS.

488.001 -> THE WALL STREET FIRM IS LOOKING AT SPLITTING THE INSTITUTIONAL

493.001 -> CLIENTS GROUP INTO THREE. IF YOU THINK OF THAT GROUP,

500.001 -> YOU'VE GOT THIS CREATED BACK IN 2000 -- 2009 AND IS THE MOST

504.001 -> IMPORTANT PART OF CITI. IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT, THE ICG

510.001 -> UNIT BROADEN $41 BILLION OF REVENUE LAST YEAR.

513.001 -> 10.7 BILLION OF THE 14.8 BILLION NET INCOME.

517.001 -> THAT GIVES YOU A SENSE OF HOW IMPORTANT THIS IS.

522.001 -> THE SEGMENTS THAT WE BROKEN UP, IT IS PERHAPS MORE FOCUSED.

528.001 -> INVESTMENT IN CORPORATE BANKING AND GLOBAL MARKETS AND

530.001 -> TRANSACTION SERVICES. WITHIN GLOBAL MARKETS, YOU HAVE

535.001 -> THE RATES BUSINESS ETC. AND TRANSACTIONS SERVICES

537.001 -> AROUND THE WORLD.

544.001 -> THERE WAS AN EXIT OF ONE OF THE TOP EXECUTIVES.

547.001 -> HE EXITED AND HAD BEEN WITH INSTITUTION FOR 36 YEARS.

551.001 -> THIS IS ABOUT REMOLDING AND CRAFTING THE BANK IN YOUR OWN

554.209 -> IMAGE. EVERY CEO WANTS TO DO IT. JAMIE DIMON DOES IT AND ERMOTTI

558.001 -> DOES IT UBS. YOU SEE SIMILAR MOVES AT BANK

561.001 -> OF AMERICA. LONG TENURED SEALS. THIS IS JANE FRASER EVOLVING

568.001 -> HER STAMP ON CITI. COMING UP ON THE SHOW, WHAT ARE

572.001 -> THE RISKS FOR GLOBAL INVESTORS? THE NARRATIVE TO COME FROM

579.001 -> CHRISTINE LAGARDE AND JEROME POWELL AND THEY WILL BE DONNING

581.001 -> THEIR STEPSONS. I AM BEING FACETIOUS OF COURSE.

586.001 -> WHAT WILL THEY HAVE TO SAY TO MARKETS ON MONETARY POLICY AT

589.001 -> BLOOMBERG?

607.026 -> >> WE WILL LOOK TOWARDS THE JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM FOR

610.026 -> COLOR ON THE DURATION OF HOW LONG WE STAY IN THIS RESTRICTED

611.026 -> TERRITORY.

614.026 -> >> I THINK THEY WILL STAY HIGHER FOR LONGER.

619.026 -> >> I DON'T THINK WE WILL HEAR A BIG CHANGE THE NARRATIVE.

622.026 -> >> I DON'T THINK CHAIRMAN POWELL CAN DEVIATE FROM THE

625.026 -> CURRENT SITUATION WHERE WE ARE WAITING FOR MORE DATA.

629.026 -> >> IT COMES DOWN TO WHAT DOES INFLATION DATA LOOK LIKE.

633.026 -> >> WE ARE DATA DEPENDENT AND SOMETHING ELSE WE CAN SAY AT

634.026 -> THE MOMENT UNTIL WE GET MORE DATA.

637.026 -> >> PROBABLY NOT A REAL REASON TO ROCK THE BOAT JACKSON HOLE.

642.026 -> >> I THINK HE IS LIKELY TO SOUND ON THE HAWKISH SIDE TO

646.026 -> KEEP THE OPTIONALITY OPEN IN CASE THEY NEED TO HIKE MORE.

651.026 -> >> THERE IS REALLY NOT A LOT TO SAY THIS POINT.

652.026 -> INFLATION IS COMING DOWN AND THAT IS A GREAT THING FOR THE

655.026 -> FED. MANUS: OUR MLIV PULSE RATE THIS WEEK

657.026 -> LOOKING AT INVESTORS CITATIONS AROUND THE FEDS FORWARD PATH

662.026 -> FOR MONETARY POLICY AND CHAIR JEROME POWELL'S SPEECH THIS

663.026 -> FRIDAY.

669.026 -> NICOLA MAI IS A PORTFOLIO MANAGER IN

673.026 -> SOVEREIGN CREDIT ILLNESS -- ANALYST AT PIMCO.

678.026 -> HOW NERVOUS WILL JEROME POWELL BE WITH THE VOLATILITY ONE

682.026 -> COULD SAY AN EXPLOSION HIGHER IN YIELDS?

686.026 -> HOW UNNERVING IS THAT FOR CHAIR POWELL THIS WEEK? GOOD MORNING.

690.026 -> NICOLA: GOOD MORNING. I'M NOT SURE I WOULD CALL IT

695.026 -> UNNERVING FOR CHAIR POWELL. LET'S REMEMBER THAT THE FED IS

701.026 -> DETERMINED TO BRING INFLATION DOWN AND THE TIGHTENING IN

703.026 -> FINANCIAL CONDITIONS WE HAVE SEEN IS SOMETHING THAT THE FED

705.026 -> HAS BEEN AIMING FOR. ACTUALLY, GIVEN THAT A LOT OF

710.026 -> THE MORTGAGES IN THE U.S. ARE LONG MORTGAGES, SUMMARIZE

715.026 -> AND LONGER YIELDS ACTUALLY MAKES THE MONETARY TIGHTENING

716.026 -> SOMEWHAT MORE EFFECTIVE. I THINK THE FED IS DATA

722.026 -> DEPENDENT FROM HERE. IT IS DONE OR NEARLY DONE BUT

725.026 -> IT WILL WATCH THE DATA CLOSELY. MANUS:

730.026 -> I MEAN, YOU TALK ABOUT THE MORTGAGE RATES IN THE U.S.

734.026 -> BUT HAS HAD LIMITED IMPACT SO FAR.

736.026 -> THE LONG VARIABLE LAG HAS BEEN LIMITED IN ITS ARRIVAL.

739.026 -> WE CAUGHT UP WITH GRANTHAM AT THE END OF LAST WEEK HE SAID

743.026 -> THE FED IS ALWAYS WRONG AND THEY NEVER CALL IT IS THERE

747.026 -> SOMETHING MUCH HARDER AND MORE OPPRESSIVE TO COME IN THE U.S.

748.026 -> ECONOMY IN YOUR VIEW? NICOLA:

754.026 -> YEAH, I MEAN, I THINK THE ECONOMY HAS HELD UP REMARKABLY

758.026 -> WELL GIVEN HOW MUCH TIGHTENING IT HAS BEEN IN TERMS OF POLICY

762.026 -> RATES. I THINK THERE ARE DIFFERENT

765.026 -> REASONS FOR THAT'S. ONE OF THEM IS THERE IS STILL

771.026 -> ACCESS SAVINGS THE ECONOMY WHICH IS THE COUNTERPART OF THE

774.026 -> BIG FISCAL STIMULUS DURING THE PANDEMIC.

777.026 -> SOME OF IT IS THE EXTENSION OF THE LOW MATURITIES FOR BOTH

782.026 -> HOUSEHOLDS AND CORPORATES. AND I THINK IT COULD ALSO BE

787.026 -> THE FISCAL POLICY IN TRUTH IS MORE STIMULATIVE THAN IT

792.026 -> APPEARS, AS WE HAVE SEEN FROM THE RISE IN THE U.S. DEFICIT.

796.026 -> BUT I ALSO THINK THAT SIMPLY THEY ARE LAGS, LONG AND

801.026 -> VARIABLE LAGS IT COMES TO MONETARY POLICY, AND IF YOU

804.026 -> LOOK AT PREVIOUS CYCLES, THE PEAK IMPACT OF POLICY RATES OF

808.839 -> TIGHTENING CYCLE'S TENDS TO BE SIX-EIGHT QUARTERS AFTER THE

813.651 -> START OF THE CYCLE. LET'S REMEMBER THE FED STARTED

818.026 -> TO HIKE IN MARCH 2022 AND START OF 2022.

822.026 -> AS WE GET TOWARDS THE END OF THIS YEAR I THINK ESPECIALLY

825.026 -> WITH LONGER YIELDS RISING, WE SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL IMPACT

826.026 -> ON THE ECONOMY. MANUS: THERE'S A NUMBER OF NARRATIVES

831.026 -> OUT THERE FROM THE PEOPLE THAT WE SPOKE TO .

835.359 -> SOME WARNED THAT THE BOND VIGILANTES HAVE BEEN WOKEN FROM

840.174 -> THEIR SLUMBER. STEVEN MAJOR THINKS IT IS A

844.026 -> GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO STEP IN AT 4.3%.

847.026 -> IF BOND VIGILANTES ARE ONLY REAWAKENING, WHAT IS THE RISK

852.026 -> THEY DEFICIT RISING, SUPPLY ORIENTATED BACKDROP TO THE BOND

856.026 -> MARKET OF MATERIALLY HIGHER NOMINAL AND REAL RATES? NICOLA:

865.026 -> YEAH, SO I -- WE SUBSCRIBE TO THE VIEW THAT EQUILIBRIUM

869.026 -> INTEREST RATE IN THE U.S. REMAINS PRETTY LOW.

874.026 -> FOR REASONS WHICH HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE BEFORE THE

878.026 -> PANDEMIC, AMONG THEM DEMOGRAPHICS.

881.026 -> THEY ARE CHANGING BUT CHANGING OVER A VERY LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

884.026 -> THE OTHER ONE IS INEQUALITY, WHICH REMAINS WIDE.

887.026 -> GENERALLY SPEAKING, WE THINK THERE IS A SAVINGS GLUT

891.026 -> GLOBALLY THAT ULTIMATELY KEEPS MEDIUM-TERM RATES LOW.

898.026 -> AS A RESULT, I THINK THE MARKET IS PRICING A FAIRLY HIGH RATE.

905.026 -> LOOK AT THAT TENURE REAL RATE -- 10 YEAR REAL RATE IN THE U.S.

908.026 -> -- MANUS: IS THIS TRANSITORY? AND YOU THINK WE WILL ROLL DOWN

911.026 -> QUICKLY? NICOLA: I THINK WE ARE CLOSE TO THE

916.026 -> UPPER END OF THE TREASURY RANGE THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING AND

920.026 -> SO I THINK BONDS LOOK ATTRACTIVE HERE.

923.026 -> THE WORD TRANSITORY IS A WORD THAT HAS BEEN USED PROBABLY

925.026 -> OVERUSED. I WOULD SAY UNTIL WE GET A BIT

929.026 -> MORE CLARITY ABOUT THE INFLATION OUTLOOK, WE COULD

933.026 -> STAY IN FAIRLY HIGH YIELD LEVELS. BUT YES, I THINK AN

938.984 -> EQUILIBRIUM, TREASURY YIELDS WILL SETTLE AT A LOWER LEVEL

943.859 -> FROM HERE. MANUS: OK.

946.026 -> DOES THAT COMPOUND YOUR UNDERWEIGHT DOLLAR NARRATIVE?

951.026 -> LAST WEEK, IT'S AMAZING HOW ANALYST SAY IT IS RISK ON A

952.026 -> RISK OFF THE DRIVE TO DOLLAR KNOW IT IS RATES.

955.026 -> MAYBE IS BACK TO RISK. IT DEPENDS WHICH WEEK YOU AS AN

960.026 -> ANALYST. I'M LOOKING AT YOUR NARRATIVE AND IS UNDERWEIGHT

962.026 -> DOLLAR. WHY, AND WHAT IS THE ALPHA FOR

965.026 -> THAT? -- OUTLOOK FOR THAT ?

972.026 -> NICOLA: BROADLY SPEAKING IF YOU LOOK AT

975.026 -> MOST VALUATION METRICS THE DOLLAR LOOKS EXTENSIVE.

979.026 -> AGAIN, IT IS THE MOST CURRENCIES.

982.026 -> SECONDLY, I THINK THE U.S. DISINFLATION CYCLE AND OF

988.026 -> INTEREST-RATE CYCLE IS MORE ADVANCED THAN IN OTHER PLACES.

992.026 -> SO, THE FED STARTED HIKING WELL BEFORE THE ECB, FOR EXAMPLE.

997.026 -> INFLATION HAS STARTED TO SLOW IN THE U.S.

999.026 -> MORE QUICKLY THAN IN EUROPE AND SEVERAL OTHER PLACES.

1003.026 -> I THINK WHEN IT COMES TO THE RATES CYCLE, I THINK THE FED IS

1004.026 -> AHEAD.

1010.026 -> AND THE CASE OF THE ECB AND BANK OF ENGLAND, THEY HAVE MORE

1011.026 -> TIGHTENING TO DO.

1018.026 -> AS A RESULT, I THINK THE RATE DIFFERENTIAL IS LIKELY TO

1022.026 -> SUPPORT THE DOLLAR UNDERWEIGHT POSITION.

1027.026 -> IN ADDITION, I WOULD SAY THAT THE DOLLAR TENDS TO DO WELL

1029.026 -> WHEN THERE IS BIG RISK OFF EVENTS LIKE A DEEP RECESSION

1032.026 -> BECAUSE OF THE HEDGE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR.

1036.026 -> WE DO SEE A VERY WEAK GROWTH /RECESSIONARY ENVIRONMENT OVER

1037.026 -> THE NEXT YEAR BUT WE DON'T SEE A DEEP RECESSION.

1042.026 -> THAT COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS MAKES US UNDERWEIGHT

1046.026 -> THE DOLLAR AGAINST CURRENCIES THAT WE FIND RELATIVELY CHEAP.

1049.026 -> MANUS: HOW ANXIOUS ARE YOU ABOUT CHINA?

1055.026 -> IF I LOOK AT GLOBAL RISK, EVERY WEEK I HAD AN ANALYST COMING --

1061.026 -> TELLING ME CHINA IS REOPENING AND TO BUY RISK.

1068.026 -> HERE WE ARE, THE DISTANCE BETWEEN REALITY AND FANTASY IS

1071.026 -> REALLY QUITE -- REALITY AND HOPE IS QUITE A BROAD GAP.

1076.026 -> HERE WE ARE, AND OUR HOPES ARE BEING --.

1080.026 -> FOR GLOBAL RISK, HOW IMPORTANT IS THIS SLOW DOWN, THE FX

1083.026 -> INTERVENTION IN CHINA? HELP CONCERNING IS THAT FOR

1086.026 -> GLOBAL RISK? -- HOW CONCERNING IS THAT FOR

1089.026 -> GLOBAL RISK? NICOLA: I THINK CHINA CERTAINLY

1095.026 -> UNDERPERFORMING RELATIVE TO MOST EXPECTATIONS AND I THINK A

1097.026 -> LOT OF IT HAS TO DO WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE PROPERTY SECTOR.

1103.026 -> AND THE POLICYMAKERS SUPPORT BEING FAIRLY PIECEMEAL.

1106.026 -> I DON'T THINK THE POLICYMAKERS WILL ALLOW A FINANCIAL CRISIS

1109.026 -> TO UNFOLD IN CHINA BUT IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THE SUPPORT

1115.026 -> MEASURES THAT ARE BEING DELIVERED INCLUDING MODEST RATE

1120.026 -> CUTS AND FISCAL EASING ARE FAIRLY MODEST. WHAT IS THE RISK?

1125.026 -> AT THE MARGIN, CHINA WILL BE A SOURCE OF WEAKNESS OF THE

1129.026 -> GLOBAL ECONOMY, AND IT WILL HELP TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE

1132.026 -> DISINFLATION THAT WE SHOULD SEE AHEAD WHICH IS ACTUALLY

1136.026 -> POSITIVE NEWS FOR ONE STIR -- PRO-WESTERN CENTRAL BANKS WHICH

1139.026 -> ARE TRYING TO AIM FOR THIS INFLATION.

1142.026 -> I DON'T THINK IT WILL BE SOMETHING THAT CAUSES A GLOBAL

1147.026 -> CRASH PARTLY BECAUSE THE CHINESE FINANCIAL SECTOR, WHICH

1150.612 -> IS GOING THROUGH WOBBLES IS NOT VERY INTERTWINED WITH THE REST

1155.543 -> OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. AND FROM A TRADE PERSPECTIVE, I

1160.026 -> WOULD SAY AT THE MARGIN, THE CHINESE ECONOMY IS LESS

1165.026 -> CONNECTED TO THE REST OF THE GLOBE AND ESPECIALLY WHEN IT

1167.026 -> COMES TO THE SERVICES SECTOR WHICH IS A DOMESTIC ISSUE.

1171.026 -> SO, CHINA IMPARTING WEAKNESS IN DISINFLATION BUT NOT REALLY

1174.026 -> CAUSING A GLOBAL CRASH. MANUS: MAYBE WE ARE LITTLE BIT MORE

1179.026 -> EMOTIONALLY ENGAGED WITH CHINA AND FINANCIALLY EXPOSED.

1183.026 -> NICOLA MAI, THANK YOU SO MUCH. PORTFOLIO MANAGER AND SOVEREIGN

1187.026 -> CREDIT ANALYST AT PIMCO ON BLOOMBERG THIS MONDAY MORNING.

1205.257 -> MANUS: ARE YOU LONG BITCOIN? ARE YOU NERVOUS?

1210.257 -> GLOBAL RISK HAS BEEN AT AN 15 YEAR HIGH IN INTEREST RATES.

1214.257 -> THIS HAS IRKED SOME OF THE CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKETS.

1217.257 -> BITCOIN NOW WITH A FLURRY ON AN UPSIDE. IT ALWAYS HAPPENS.

1226.257 -> THE TREND IS THERE, WHICH IS DOWN GOING INTO SESSION NUMBER

1230.257 -> EIGHT WE ARE IN CORRECTION TERRITORY, DOWN 11.45%.

1233.257 -> YOU HAVE MASSIVE LIQUIDATIONS BILLION DOLLARS LIQUIDATED IN

1236.257 -> THE 24 HOURS OF FRIDAYS RUCKUS. THE QUESTION IS DO WE HAVE

1238.257 -> LOWER TO GO? A QUICK SNAPSHOT OF GLOBAL RISK.

1246.257 -> GAS FLYING HIGHER ON ANGST ABOUT STRIKES IN AUSTRALIA.

1250.257 -> EQUITIES IN EUROPE PREVARICATING AFTER THEY HAD A

1254.257 -> PRETTY BRUTAL TIME FOR THE PAST THREE WEEKS.

1275.96 -> MANUS: CHINESE STOCKS CONTINUE THE

1277.96 -> SLIDE AFTER BANKS MAKE IT SMALLER THAN EXPECTED CUT THEIR

1278.96 -> BENCHMARK LENDING RATES. THE FAILURE TO TRIM THE

1282.96 -> REFERENCE RATE FOR MORTGAGES. EUROPEAN ENERGY STOCKS ARE

1286.96 -> HIGHER WITH FEARS OF A POTENTIAL STRIKE HITTING

1290.96 -> AUSTRALIAN GAS EXPORTS. CITI CEO JANE FRASER IS

1294.96 -> REPORTED TO BE PLANNING A BREAKUP OF THE BANK'S BIGGEST

1296.96 -> UNITS AND RESTRUCTURING THAT WOULD GIVE HER MORE POWER.

1304.96 -> PLUS, BRICS LEADERS GATHER IN JOHANNESBURG TO TRY TO

1305.96 -> CHALLENGE THE WESTERN DOMINANCE OF GLOBAL FINANCE.

1308.96 -> WE DISCUSSED THAT WITH THE MAN WHO COINED THE MONIKER OF THE

1313.098 -> BLOC, JIM O'NEILL, FORMER JANE NEWMAN -- FORMER CHAIRMAN OF

1316.546 -> GOLDMAN SACHS. WHILE COMPARED IT IS "THE

1318.96 -> PULSE." I AM MANUS CRANNY.

1325.96 -> THE SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT HAS EXPRESSED SUPPORT FOR THE

1327.96 -> EXPANSION OF THE BRICS GROUP OF AN EMERGING MARKETS.

1330.96 -> BLOOMBERG'S JENNIFER ZABASAJJA LOOKS INTO THE BACKGROUND OF

1336.96 -> THE BLOC AND WHY MORE THAN 40 COUNTRIES HAVE NOW EXPRESSED AN

1337.96 -> INTEREST IN JOINING THE CLUB. JENNIFER:

1339.96 -> BRICS, OR BRAZIL, RUSSIA, INDIA, CHINA AND SOUTH AFRICA.

1344.96 -> IT HAS GONE FROM AN ACRONYM TO A POWERFUL CLUB THAT DOZENS OF

1347.96 -> COUNTRIES ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM WANT TO JOIN.

1350.96 -> THE TERM WAS COINED BY ECONOMIST JIM O'NEILL IN 2001.

1355.96 -> AND IT WAS MEANT TO HIGHLIGHT RAPID GROWTH SEEN IN THESE

1360.96 -> EMERGING ECONOMIES. INITIALLY, BRIC, THE S JOINED

1362.96 -> IN 2010, EXTENDING THE GROUP'S MEMBERSHIP TO AFRICA TO FOUR

1366.96 -> CONTINENTS NEARLY A QUARTER OF GLOBAL GDP AND ABOUT 1/5 OF

1372.96 -> WORLD TRADE. THESE NATIONS SAW THEIR

1375.96 -> COLLECTIVE VOICE AS A WAY TO EXERT GREATER INFLUENCE IN A

1378.96 -> U.S.-DOMINATED WORLD. BUT MUCH LIKE OTHER

1380.96 -> MULTILATERAL FORUMS SUCH AS THE G7, PRODUCING AN AGREEMENT AT

1383.96 -> ITS ANNUAL GATHERING HAS BECOME ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES.

1388.96 -> NOW, MORE THAN 40 COUNTRIES HAVE EXPRESSED INTEREST IN

1392.96 -> JOINING THE CLUB, MANY OF WHICH ARE AFRICAN. PRES. RAMAPHOSA:

1397.96 -> THE BRICS PARTNERS ARE SIGNIFICANT INVESTORS IN AFRICA.

1400.96 -> JENNIFER: AMONG THE ITEMS ON THIS YEAR'S

1402.96 -> AGENDA WILL BE HOW TO BOOST THE INFLUENCE OF A SO-CALLED GLOBAL

1404.96 -> SOUTH AND MULTILATERAL

1410.96 -> INSTITUTIONS SUCH AS THE UNITED NATIONS.

1411.96 -> BRICS ACCOUNTS FOR 42% OF THE WORLD'S POPULATION, BUT STILL

1415.96 -> ONLY 15% VOTING RIGHTS AT THE IMF AND THE WORLD BANK.

1420.96 -> WITH THE IMF PREDICTING THESE NATIONS' GROWTH RATES WILL SOON

1423.96 -> SURPASS THOSE OF THE G7, BRICS WANTS A BIGGER VOICE IN THESE

1427.96 -> BODIES. AND THAT'S WHY SOME SAY THIS

1429.96 -> YEAR'S SUMMIT COULD PROVE CRITICAL FOR THE FUTURE OF THE

1431.96 -> BRICS IN AN INCREASINGLY MULTIPOLAR WORLD.

1439.96 -> MANUS: POTENT IMAGERY THERE OF THE

1442.96 -> UPCOMING BRICS SUMMIT. JENNIFER ZABASAJJA IS WITH ME

1444.96 -> NOW. THE EXPANSION PLANS HAVE TOUCHED ON THIS MORNING WHEN WE

1447.96 -> WERE CHATTING. IS IT A THREAT TO WORLD ORDER?

1455.96 -> IS THAT THE CORRECT WAY TO LOOK AT THIS? JENNIFER:

1458.96 -> IT DEPENDS ON WHO YOU SPEAK WITH.

1460.96 -> BUT WE HAVE HEARD FROM LEADERS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS IT

1464.96 -> IS NOT MEANT TO BE ANTI-WEST OR COUNTER THE U.S. BY ANY MEANS.

1467.96 -> BUT A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE LOOKING AT THE COUNTRIES THAT HAVE

1470.96 -> APPLIED OR POTENTIALLY LOOKING TO BE A PART OF BRICS IN SAYING

1474.96 -> WHAT COULD THIS POTENTIALLY MEAN FOR THE FUTURE OF BRICS?

1479.96 -> THERE ARE 40 COUNTRIES THAT EXPRESSED INTEREST BUT WE HEARD

1483.96 -> FROM PRESIDENT RAMAPHOSA LAST NIGHT AND THERE ONLY 20

1486.96 -> COUNTRIES -- MORE THAN 20 COUNTRIES EXCUSE ME AT THE HAVE

1492.793 -> FORMALLY APPLIED.

1493.96 -> WHAT HE REITERATED ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE COUNTRY IN HIS

1495.96 -> STATE ADDRESS IS THAT IT IS DESPITE A LOT OF THESE

1499.96 -> COUNTRIES HAVING DIFFERING POLITICAL VIEWS AND BEING ON

1502.96 -> DIFFERENT SIDES OF THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM, THEY ALL

1506.96 -> SHARE AN ASPIRATION FOR MORE BALANCED GLOBAL ORDER.

1510.96 -> IT WILL HAVE TO SEE WHETHER OR NOT THERE ARE OTHER COUNTRIES

1512.96 -> THAT WILL BE ADDED INTO THIS BLOC THIS YEAR BUT DEFINITELY

1515.96 -> SOMETHING THAT WE HEARD HIM REITERATE.

1517.96 -> HIS INTEREST IN IT LAST NIGHT. MANUS: INDEED.

1524.96 -> JOINING US NOW IS THE MAN WHO COINED THAT PHRASE, BRICS.

1528.96 -> WE ARE JOINED BY JIM O'NEILL. GOOD TO SEE YOU THIS MORNING.

1533.96 -> I BROKE THIS NEWS IN 2001 AT CNBC AND IT WAS OUR FUTURE.

1536.96 -> IT WAS BRIGHT MERIDIANS. AS IT FAILED TO LIVE UP TO WHAT

1540.96 -> YOU EVER THOUGHT IT WAS GOING TO BE, JIM?

1546.96 -> DISALVO TALKS ABOUT IT AS BEING SOMETHING THAT HE WANTS A

1547.96 -> STRONGER POLITICAL AND FINANCIAL BRICS.

1551.96 -> WHERE ARE WE IN THE ASCENDANCE OF BRICS? GOOD MORNING.

1557.96 -> JIM: THANKS FOR HAVING ME ON. IT IS NOT STRAIGHTFORWARD.

1562.96 -> ECONOMICALLY, THE ONLY REASON WHY THE GROUP IS NOT

1567.96 -> INTERESTING FRANKLY IS BECAUSE OF COURSE, CHINA.

1574.96 -> CHINA OF THE COUNTRIES THAT I THOUGHT SHOULD BE IN THE

1578.96 -> ACRONYM, DID NOT INCLUDE SOUTH AFRICA AS JENNIFER SAID IN HER

1580.96 -> REPORT INITIALLY. CHINA IS ONLY ONE THAT HAS

1587.96 -> GROWN MORE THAN ANY OF THE ASSUMPTIONS WE EVER MADE,

1591.96 -> DESPITE ITS OWN DISAPPOINTMENTS IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS.

1596.96 -> INDIA GOT CLOSE BUT BRAZIL, RUSSIA, AND AT SOUTH AFRICA

1602.96 -> HAVE ALL BEEN PARTICULARLY SINCE 2010, EXTREMELY

1603.96 -> DISAPPOINTING.

1610.96 -> AND SO, IT IS AN UNEVEN GROUP, AND WITHOUT CHINA AND INDIA, I

1613.96 -> DON'T THINK IT WOULD BE THE INTERESTING AT ALL ECONOMICALLY.

1623.96 -> AND AMONGST THE MANY COMPLICATIONS I HAVE GOING

1626.96 -> AROUND MY HEAD ABOUT THE POSSIBLE EXPANSION IS

1630.96 -> ECONOMICALLY, NONE -- NOT MANY OF THE COUNTRIES THAT HAVE

1636.96 -> APPLIED TO JOIN A PARTICULARLY LARGE.

1639.96 -> SO I'M NOT QUITE SURE WHAT IT IS THAT THEY ARE TRYING TO

1643.96 -> ACHIEVE WHICH TAKES ME TO THE THIRD POINT.

1647.96 -> EVER SINCE THEY SET UP THE POLITICAL GROUPING AND SOUTH

1653.96 -> AFRICA'S PRESENT HAS BEEN, AS JENNIFER SHOWED IN HER

1654.96 -> SEGMENTS, HAS BEEN VERY DISAPPOINTING.

1659.96 -> AT A MINIMUM, YOU WOULD EXPECT THEY WOULD FOCUS ON DOING

1662.96 -> SOMETHING TO IMPROVE THEIR COLLECTIVE GROWTH RATES.

1666.96 -> AND IF ANYTHING, AS I SOMETIMES TEASED BRICS LEADERS ABOUT AND

1670.96 -> THEIR ADVISORS, THE OPPOSITE HAS HAPPENED.

1673.71 -> THEY'VE HAD ENOUGH DIFFICULTY WITH CHINA AGREEING JUST

1677.835 -> BETWEEN THE FIVE OF THEM. BEYOND THE ADMITTEDLY HUGELY

1681.96 -> POWERFUL SYMBOLISM, I'M NOT QUITE SURE WHAT HAVING A LOT

1684.96 -> MORE COUNTRIES AND THERE IS GOING TO ACHIEVE.

1690.96 -> JENNIFER: WHAT WOULD THEN CHANGE YOUR

1692.96 -> PERSPECTIVE ON IT? IT HAS BEEN A LOT OF TALK

1694.96 -> LEADING UP TO THE SUMMIT ABOUT POTENTIALLY MOVING AWAY FROM

1696.96 -> THE DOLLAR. COULD THAT POTENTIALLY BE THE

1701.96 -> CATALYST THAT CHANGES ANY SORT OF SUCCESS, FUTURE SUCCESS FOR

1703.96 -> THAT BRICS GROUPING? JIM: I MEAN, WHAT I WOULD REALLY

1710.96 -> LIKE TO SEE IS THE TWO BIG PLACES, CHINA AND INDIA, BEING

1714.96 -> A LOT MORE SERIOUS ABOUT SHARING RESPONSIBILITIES AND

1719.96 -> HAVING SERIOUS FOCUS ON JOINT INITIATIVES.

1725.96 -> IN REALITY, WHEN YOU GET AWAY FROM THE STATION GEOPOLITICS OF

1730.96 -> ITS, CHINA AND INDIA RARELY GET ROOM TO DISCUSS ANYTHING.

1733.96 -> BUT BECAUSE OF THE SIZE OF THEIR POPULATIONS AND BECAUSE

1738.96 -> OF THE SIGNIFICANT SIZE ECONOMICALLY, IF THESE TWO

1741.96 -> COUNTRIES WERE SERIOUS ABOUT GLOBAL TRADE AND SERIOUS ABOUT

1746.96 -> CLIMATE CHANGE AND SERIOUS ABOUT INFECTIOUS DISEASE

1749.96 -> PREVENTION, THEN AUTOMATICALLY, THE BRICS THING WILL BECOME

1752.96 -> MASSIVE. AND ISSUES ABOUT THE DOLLAR

1757.96 -> WOULD FOLLOW FROM THAT. ALL THESE RADIO STATEMENTS OF

1763.96 -> WHICH THE CRAZIEST IS THE ONE I THINK IS ASSOCIATED RECENTLY

1769.96 -> WITH LULA FROM BRAZIL ABOUT REPLACING THE DOLLAR WITH A NEW

1771.96 -> CURRENCY, I MEAN, IT'S JUST KIND OF MADNESS REALLY.

1777.96 -> IF THEY ARE SERIOUS ABOUT CHINA PURSUING INITIATIVES WERE EACH

1779.96 -> OF THEIR CURRENCIES ARE GOING TO BE USED MORE FOR TRADE

1786.96 -> BETWEEN THEMSELVES AND IF IT IS ALLOWED TO RESULT IN OPENING UP

1789.96 -> OF THEIR OWN FINANCIAL MARKETS, THEN THAT WOULD BE A BEGINNING

1794.96 -> OF A LESSER ROLE OF THE DOLLAR. BUT JUST MAKING THESE RADIO

1801.96 -> STATEMENTS, IT'S KIND OF A BIT INGLES AFTER -- A BIT

1805.96 -> MEANINGLESS AFTER IT HAS GONE BEYOND THE FUN AND GAMES FOR

1806.96 -> YOU AND GAMES FOR YOU THE MEDIA WORLD TO BE HONEST. JENNIFER:

1811.96 -> WHAT THEN POTENTIALLY -- AS WE MENTIONED THERE ARE NUMBER OF

1815.96 -> COUNTRIES THAT ARE INTERESTED IN POTENTIALLY BEING A PART OF

1819.489 -> THIS BLOC. ARE THERE ADDITIONS TO THE

1821.96 -> BRICS THAT COULD BOLSTER THE GROUPING?

1824.96 -> YOU MENTIONED CHINA AND INDIA HAVING SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE.

1827.96 -> WHO ELSE POTENTIALLY COULD COME IN THAT COULD COME AGAIN,

1833.96 -> COUNTER G7 POTENTIALLY ? JIM: I WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR, IN MY

1838.96 -> OPINION, WHAT WE SHOULD REALLY SEE GOING ON FROM A GLOBAL

1841.96 -> PERSPECTIVE IS EXISTING ENTITY WHICH THE BRICS ALREADY PART OF

1845.96 -> ALONG WITH THE G7, THE G20 SHOULD BE GIVEN A LOT OF

1849.96 -> ATTENTION BY EVERY COUNTRY TO BE THE CENTRAL THING FOR GLOBAL

1851.96 -> GOVERNANCE. HAVING THESE COMPETING THINGS

1854.96 -> GOING ON IS NOT HELPING ANYONE.

1858.174 -> THE G7 IN MY OPINION IS NOT FAR OFF BEING A WASTE OF TIME

1865.674 -> EITHER. THAT BEING SAID, I DO THINK THE

1869.96 -> SYMBOLISM OF THE BRICS AND ANY BRICS EXPANSION IS IMPORTANT

1871.96 -> BECAUSE IT DOES HIGHLIGHT THE FEELINGS OF THE GLOBAL SOUTH.

1875.96 -> THEY ARE NOT ADEQUATELY PRESENTED.

1879.96 -> IN THAT SENSE, I THINK I FIND MYSELF THINKING SAUDI ARABIA

1882.96 -> PARTICULARLY GIVEN ITS ROLE AS THE WORLD'S BIGGEST OIL

1886.96 -> PRODUCER AND OF COURSE GIVEN ITS CLOSENESS HISTORICALLY WITH

1893.96 -> THE UNITED STATES, I THINK THEY JOINING WHICH I IMAGINE IF

1897.96 -> ANYBODY IS JOINING INCLUDE THEM, IS A PRETTY BIG DEAL.

1900.96 -> AND THEN ECONOMICALLY, I THINK THE LIKES OF INDONESIA, WHICH

1906.96 -> IN SOME WAYS IS ARGUABLY THE COUNTRY THAT HAS THE MOST

1911.96 -> LEGITIMATE GRIPE ABOUT NEVER BEING INCLUDED IN THE FIRST

1915.96 -> PLACE, IT IMPORTANT GIVEN HOW WELL THEY HAVE GONE FOR THE

1916.96 -> PAST 20 YEARS. I CAN'T RESIST SAYING WITH IT

1922.96 -> BEING IN SOUTH AFRICA AND YOU BEING THERE, JENNIFER, WITH ALL

1927.96 -> THE COUNTRIES AROUND AFRICA AND DISCUSSED, WHY ISN'T NIGERIA ON

1928.96 -> THE AGENDA? IT IS ALREADY A BIGGER COUNTRY

1932.652 -> ECONOMICALLY THEN OF AFRICA AND IS 20% SOUTH AFRICA'S

1937.268 -> POPULATION. EVEN IF YOU GET TO BEYOND THE

1940.96 -> SYMBOLISM, WHAT ARE THE CRITERIA FOR COUNTRIES THAT ARE

1943.96 -> GOING IN AND NOT EVEN BEING CONSIDERED?

1946.96 -> IT DOES NOT SEEM TO ME TO HAS BEEN A LOT OF THOUGHT GIVEN TO

1947.96 -> THAT. MANUS: JIM, LET'S PICK UP ON THE SAUDI

1951.96 -> ASPECT. I SIT IN DUBAI. WE HAVE SEEN A MAJOR INITIATIVE.

1959.96 -> YOU CAN CRITICIZE IT BUT THE SAUDI'S CORRALLED A LOT OF THE

1962.96 -> GLOBAL SOUTH TO MEETING OVER THE UKRAINE WAR WITH RUSSIA.

1966.96 -> THEY ARE HAVING THEIR MOMENT IN THE GLOBAL POLITICAL SON --

1970.96 -> SOME BAMA IN THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER.

1975.96 -> YOU THINK IT WOULD BE IMPORTANT IF THE SAUDI'S, BOARD.

1979.96 -> WHAT IS IT THAT YOU WOULD SAY SAUDI COMING IN FOR THE UAE

1984.96 -> ASKING PERHAPS TO BECOME MORE INTEGRAL, WHAT WOULD CHANGE?

1990.96 -> WHAT WOULD THAT CHANGE WITHIN THE NARRATIVE?

1991.96 -> WOULD IT BE THE FINANCE, THE POLITICS? YOU ARE ASKING -- JIM:

1996.96 -> YOU ARE ASKING ME? MANUS: YES. JIM:

2001.96 -> THE MOST OBVIOUS THING IS IF THEY WERE GOING INTO IT WITH

2005.96 -> REGARD TO ITS BEING A SUBSTANTIVE THINK FOR

2011.96 -> THEMSELVES, THE FIRST THING IS WHETHER THEY START PRICING

2014.96 -> THEIR OIL TO ALL THESE BUYERS IN LOCAL CURRENCY AND NOT IN

2017.96 -> THE DOLLAR. AGAIN, AS SOME OF YOU ARE

2024.96 -> LEADERS AND FOLLOWERS WILL KNOW, ON AND OFF FOR 40 YEARS

2030.96 -> GOING ON THE WAY BACK TO THE OIL CRISIS OF THE 70'S, THERE

2038.96 -> WAS TALK THEN ABOUT OIL PRODUCERS HAVING SOMETHING

2039.96 -> OTHER THAN THE DOLLAR. THAT WOULD BE HUGELY

2043.96 -> SIGNIFICANT IF IT WERE TRUE. WHAT IS INTERESTING IN THIS

2048.96 -> REGARD IS OF COURSE THE SAUDI'S ARE REACHING OUT ALL OVER THE

2052.96 -> PLACE IN THE U.K. LATE LAST WEEK THERE WAS A LOT

2057.96 -> OF FOCUS AND CONTROVERSY ABOUT IT, ABOUT SOME KIND OF FORMAL

2061.96 -> VISIT FROM ANN BJ TO THE U.K.. -- ANN BJ TO THE U.K..

2067.96 -> THERE WOULD BE A SORT OF FIGHTING FOR SPOILS AS FAR AS

2072.96 -> WHO IS SAUDI ARABIA'S CLOSEST FRIEND I GUESS.

2075.96 -> BUT I THINK ALONG WITH THE PRICING THING, THE FACT THAT

2081.96 -> THEY ARE SUCH HUGELY IMPORTANT OIL PRODUCERS, WHAT WOULD

2087.96 -> CLEARLY ADD IMPORTANT CONCEPTUAL WEIGHT TO WHATEVER

2091.96 -> THE BRICS WILL TALK ABOUT GOING FOR.

2095.96 -> AS JENNIFER TOUCHED ON, THERE'S A HUGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN

2097.96 -> TALKING ABOUT STUFF AND ACTUALLY DOING SOMETHING.

2103.96 -> FOR THE BRICS TO REALLY BE MORE EFFECTIVE, RELEVANT OF WHO IS

2106.96 -> IN IT OR NOT, THEY GOT TO START TRYING TO DO THINGS RATHER THAN

2109.96 -> JUST MEETING ONCE A YEAR AND MAKING VERY GRAND, SYMBOLIC

2110.96 -> STATEMENTS. IN THE NOTHING OF SUBSTANCE

2114.96 -> EVER REALLY HAPPENING. MANUS: JIM, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR

2121.96 -> BEING WITH US THIRD WE DID NOT GET TO WOMEN'S FOOTBALL SO

2125.96 -> YOU'RE SAFE FROM HAVING TO ANSWER THAT. [LAUGHTER]

2129.96 -> JIM O'NEILL AND JENNIFER ZABASAJJA ON THE BRICS SUMMIT.

2134.96 -> LET'S SEE WHAT THE NEWS FLOW GIVES US.

2137.96 -> COMING UP, UKRAINE HAS BEEN PROMISED ADDITIONAL FIGHTER JET

2139.96 -> BY DENMARK AND THE NETHERLANDS. WE BRING YOU THE STORY RIGHT

2143.96 -> HERE FROM MARIA TADEO ON BLOOMBERG.

2169.181 -> >> WHAT IS THE RESPONSE OF?

2172.181 -> >> IT IS NOT HOW FAST WE GO.

2176.181 -> >> COVERAGE STARTS WEDNESDAY WITH A SPECIAL EDITION OF

2178.181 -> BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE LIVE FROM JACKSON HOLE ON FRIDAY

2180.181 -> AUGUST 25 AND 8:00 A.M. EASTERN. BLOOMBERG, YOUR GLOBAL BUSINESS

2183.181 -> AUTHORITY.

2195.181 -> MANUS: DENMARK IN THE NETHERLANDS HAVE

2198.181 -> PLEDGED TO SEND F-16 FIGHTER JETS TO KYIV DURING A SURPRISE

2203.181 -> VISIT TO THE UKRAINIAN RESIDENT VLADIMIR WEDNESDAY.

2205.181 -> LET'S GET MORE ON THE STORY WITH MARIA TADEO.

2208.181 -> HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THIS MOMENT? WE HEARD A LOT ABOUT CALLS FROM

2214.181 -> ZELENSKY ABOUT THESE AIRPLANES FOR MONTHS AND MONTHS.

2216.181 -> TALK ME THROUGH THE SIGNIFICANCE. MARIA:

2220.181 -> IT IS SIGNIFICANT TO THE EXTENT THAT WE HAVE LINES COMING FROM

2223.181 -> THE UKRAINIAN FOREIGN MINISTER. AGAIN, THE DELIVERY OF THE

2228.181 -> PLANS WOULD HAPPEN IN THE CONTEXT OF THE COUNTEROFFENSIVE.

2231.181 -> REMEMBER THE HAS BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS DIGESTING THAT PERHAPS

2234.181 -> WHILE THE COUNTEROFFENSIVE IS NOT GOING AS FAST AS EXPECTED

2240.181 -> SOME TALK ABOUT HIS APPOINTMENT -- DISAPPOINTMENT BUT THE

2241.181 -> UKRAINIAN FOREIGN MINISTER SAID THIS COULD HELP IN BE IMPORTANT.

2245.181 -> HE SAYS ANYONE WHO CRITICIZES UKRAINE FOR BEING SLOW, QUOTE

2248.181 -> YOU SHOULD TRY TO DO THIS YOURSELF.

2253.181 -> THAT ENCAPSULATES THE TENSION IN THE STORY.

2256.181 -> IN TERMS OF THE FIGHTER JETS, THERE ARE TWO MAJOR QUESTIONS.

2259.181 -> ONE IS WHEN WILL UKRAINE ACTUALLY GET THEM AND THAT WILL

2261.181 -> DEPEND ON THE TRAINING OF THE PILOTS.

2264.181 -> IT WAS CONDITIONAL TO THE TRAINING.

2267.181 -> YESTERDAY THE DUTCH PRIME MINISTER SAID THAT SEPTEMBER

2272.181 -> LOOKS TOO SOON BUT HOPEFULLY SOON AFTER, HE'S ADJUSTED.

2276.181 -> THE DUTCH HAVE 42 F-16S IN STOCK.

2279.181 -> DOESN'T MEAN THAT UKRAINE GETS 42? THAT IS THE QUESTION BECAUSE

2282.181 -> PRESIDENT ZIELINSKI INDICATED THEY WOULD BUT THEY WOULD NOT

2284.431 -> PUT A NUMBER ON ITS. WHEN IT COMES TO DENMARK THEY

2287.181 -> HAVE 19. YESTERDAY IT SEEMS THAT THEY

2292.181 -> WILL GET A FULL 19 BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR, ESPECIALLY

2296.181 -> IN THE CONTEXT OF THE COUNTEROFFENSIVE. MANUS:

2302.181 -> SPEAKING OF NATO, ERDOGAN MET OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEY

2305.181 -> DISCUSSED SWEDEN'S BID TO JOIN NATO.

2307.181 -> IS THAT PART OF THE AGENDA WE UNDERSTAND? MARIA:

2311.181 -> YES AND HE TALKED ABOUT GEOPOLITICS OVERALL.

2314.181 -> NATO AND ENERGY TOO. AGAIN, IT IS IMPORTANT TO

2319.181 -> REALLY STRESS THE THREAD THAT CONNECTS THESE TWO COUNTRIES ON

2321.181 -> THE DIPLOMAT AT FRONT. THEY HAVE RATIFIED THE BID FOR

2326.181 -> NATO AND SWEDEN TO JOIN THE ALLIANCE.

2329.181 -> PRESIDENT ERDOGAN GAVE THE POLITICAL GO AHEAD BUT WE DO

2332.181 -> NOT HAVE THE RATIFICATION FROM THE TURKISH PARLIAMENT NOR THE

2334.181 -> HUNGARIAN PARLIAMENT. WE KNOW WHY THERE IS A DELAY

2338.181 -> THE TURKISH ONE. THEY HAD TO LOOK THROUGH

2342.181 -> MEMORANDUM PRESIDENT ERDOGAN WANTED TO SEE SWEDEN DO MORE

2344.181 -> WHEN IT COMES TO TERRORISM. WHEN IT COMES TO HUNGRY, THERE

2348.181 -> IS NO MEMORANDUM. IT IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHY THEY'RE

2351.181 -> PULLING BACK. IT IS BAD NEWS TO SOME EXTENT

2357.181 -> PERSUADED BECAUSE WE ARE GETTING BACK TO SEPTEMBER, THE

2359.181 -> END OF THE SUMMER BREAK AND THEY DO NOT HAVE A VOTE OR DATE

2361.181 -> FOR THE VOTE TO HAPPEN. MANUS:

2367.181 -> MARIA, I TAKE IT YOU ARE WATCHING FOOTBALL YESTERDAY.

2370.181 -> YOU MUST BE THE HAPPIEST PERSON IN BRUSSELS TODAY. MARIA:

2375.181 -> I AM ALWAYS HAPPY BUT TODAY I'M EXTRA HAPPY. IT WAS A GREAT WIN.

2382.181 -> IT WAS A DIPLOMATIC WIN BECAUSE THE SPANISH QUEEN GOT ON THE

2384.181 -> PLANE AND WENT TO AUSTRALIA. MANUS:

2386.181 -> YOU ARE GOING INTO DANGEROUS TERRITORY.

2390.181 -> YOU'VE GONE INTO THE BULLET ZONE.

2394.181 -> MARIA, IT WAS GOING SO WELL. IT WAS GOING SO WELL. MARIA:

2398.181 -> YOU HAVE TO SHOW UP. MANUS: I AM AN IRISH MAN.

2404.181 -> WE DO NOT HAVE ROYALTY WHERE I AM FOND. WHERE I AM FROM.

2408.181 -> MARIA TADEO IN BRUSSELS WITH THE LATEST ON GEOPOLITICS.

2412.181 -> COMING UP, $18 TRILLION ECONOMIC POWERHOUSE IN ASIA IS

2414.181 -> DECELERATING. WHY WOULD THE COUNTRY'S LEADER

2417.181 -> ALLOW THAT TO HAPPEN? MAKE SENSE OF IT ON THE MOST

2421.181 -> READ STORY ON BLOOMBERG THIS MONDAY MORNING.

2427.181 -> ♪

2443.494 -> MANUS: THE CONVERSATIONS THAT MATTER,

2444.494 -> THE INSIGHTS THAT YOU NEED. HIS RIGHT HERE ON "THE PULSE."

2449.494 -> I'M MANUS CRANNY DUBAI. TAKE A LOOK AT HOW PRESIDENT XI

2455.494 -> JINPING'S QUEST RETYPE -- REWRITE CHINA'S PLAYBOOK IS

2458.494 -> FACING ITS STERNEST TEST YET. LET'S SPEAK WITH DAN AND KATE.

2465.494 -> GOOD TO HAVE YOU WITH ME. WHY IS BEIJING NOT ADDING MORE

2469.494 -> STIMULUS? THEY ARE GRAPPLING WITH DEBT

2473.494 -> AND AN FX RATE THAT IS BECOMING MORE UNHINGED.

2476.494 -> WHY NOT DO MORE AND BE MORE AGGRESSIVE? DAN:

2483.494 -> YEAH, WELL THIS REALLY GOES TO THE HEART OF XI JINPING'S

2486.494 -> ECONOMIC PHILOSOPHY AND WHAT HE IS TRYING TO DO IS BREAK THIS

2491.494 -> MODEL THAT CHINA HAS HAD FOR DECADES TO KIND OF PUMP UP THE

2498.494 -> ECONOMY WITH A LACK OF DEBT FUELED STIMULUS AS THEY HAD

2501.494 -> DONE IN THE PAST. LOTS OF SPENDING ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND

2504.494 -> SPENDING ON PROPERTY IN PARTICULAR.

2509.494 -> WHAT XI JINPING IS TRYING TO DO AS HE DOES NOT WANT PROPERTY

2513.494 -> WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR ABOUT A QUARTER OF THE ECONOMY TO KEEP

2516.494 -> GOING AT THIS RATE. WE ARE SEEING APARTMENT

2522.494 -> BUILDINGS POP UP, GHOST CITIES, ZOMBIE COMPANIES AND ALL THAT.

2527.494 -> WHAT HE IS TRYING TO DO IS BASICALLY PUT THINGS ON A MORE

2529.494 -> SUSTAINABLE PUTTING WITH WHAT HE CALLS HIGH-QUALITY GROWTH.

2532.494 -> THAT IS WHY WE ARE SEEING HIM HOLD BACK RIGHT NOW.

2535.494 -> THERE IS STUFF HE COULD DO TO KEEP THIS GOING BUT CHINA IS AT

2540.494 -> A LEVEL WHERE THE DEBT SERVICING COSTS THAT THEY ARE

2544.494 -> PAYING ARE NOT GENERATING THE RETURNS AND GROWTH THAT THEY

2547.494 -> DID IN THE PAST. WHAT HE IS TRYING TO DO IS SET THEM UP

2552.494 -> ESSENTIALLY FOR MORE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH OVER THE

2556.694 -> LONG-TERM. MANUS:

2558.494 -> OK, WELL THAT IS THE OMISSION AS HE ATTENDS THE BRICS SUMMIT

2561.494 -> THIS WEEK IN SOUTH AFRICA. LET'S SEE WHAT KIND OF CLOUD

2563.494 -> THAT CAN BRING TO BEAR. DAN TEN KATE, THANK YOU VERY

2569.494 -> MUCH ON THE BIG TAKE WHICH IS ON YOUR BLOOMBERG TERMINAL THIS

2572.494 -> MORNING, ONE OF THE MOST READ STORIES ON BLOOMBERG.

2576.494 -> I'M TO WORK THE CHINA ECONOMY. THE STATE OF PLAY IN MARKETS AS

2582.817 -> WE HAND OFF TO SURVEILLANCE EARLY EDITION WITH CRITICAL

2586.881 -> DEBT. NATURAL GAS ON FIRE AS THE RISK

2590.494 -> OF STRIKES IN AUSTRALIA SENDS

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHabI6bATaw